College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8667cda72a5a3514a0b99edd4a8b926067ee2ee606aa23ed398a3e8602baa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- West Virginiaof Houston, West Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Houston | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Houston | 52c | 25,825$13,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,424.31 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed West Virginia | 48c | 25,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,000 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed West Virginia | 48c | 18,523$8,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,632 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed West Virginia | 48c | 10,050$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed West Virginia | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed West Virginia | 47c | 233.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…435cbacked Houston | 52c | 230.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Houston | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked West Virginia | 48c | 201.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked West Virginia | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked West Virginia | 47c | 188.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Houston | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed West Virginia | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…9144backed West Virginia | 49c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5c1dbacked West Virginia | 49c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Houston | 53c | 107.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed West Virginia | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked West Virginia | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-12.5)this page
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-13.5)West Virginia won
- Spread: Houston (-14.5)West Virginia won
- West Virginia vs. HoustonWest Virginia won
- West Virginia vs. Houston: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.