Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f3952c33a84bfc1133dd65049ba19fe4b82ebd88f963ff670a4f8d42bb438e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,927 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 3,183$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,163$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 560.81$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 46c | 443.06$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 56c | 359.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 267.86$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 55c | 222$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 12c | 173.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 45c | 162.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 43c | 152.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 140.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 64c | 128.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Under | 42c | 119.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 114.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 107.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 42c | 84.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 15c | 72.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 67.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 30c | 65.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 58c | 49.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…568abacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 57c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Under | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 44c | 25.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…c12abacked Under | 79c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.