Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Alibek Kachmazov vs Sora Fukuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4f2a941905d161ea791e01b0b817a30927bee164830c3b0fa836df34fb4e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alibek Kachmazovof Alibek Kachmazov, Sora Fukuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe30e…6b87backed Sora Fukuda | 40c | 21,698$8,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,750.62 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alibek Kachmazov | 61c | 15,480$9,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,960.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alibek Kachmazov | 54c | 4,744$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.99 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Alibek Kachmazov | 55c | 490.37$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.57 | 221 | 52%115 W · 106 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alibek Kachmazov | 64c | 294.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Alibek Kachmazov | 56c | 259$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Sora Fukuda | 17c | 201.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Sora Fukuda | 15c | 165.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Alibek Kachmazov | 58c | 145.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Alibek Kachmazov | 62c | 141$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Alibek Kachmazov | 57c | 121.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sora Fukuda | 41c | 108.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Alibek Kachmazov | 58c | 104.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sora Fukuda | 42c | 90.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alibek Kachmazov | 68c | 81.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Alibek Kachmazov | 52c | 75.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Alibek Kachmazov | 55c | 73.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Alibek Kachmazov | 68c | 71.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Alibek Kachmazov | 74c | 61.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Alibek Kachmazov | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…adc1backed Alibek Kachmazov | 62c | 38.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Alibek Kachmazov | 74c | 35.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Alibek Kachmazov | 71c | 35.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Alibek Kachmazov | 65c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…47f5backed Alibek Kachmazov | 64c | 30.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed Alibek Kachmazov | 61c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…0e52backed Alibek Kachmazov | 71c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.