Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nice beat Rangers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4f5a8d5af9b23d69bca9439ae84d58dc48d0f0bf551674bbbe74eacb09e2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 46c | 1,700$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 53c | 920.88$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.91 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 55c | 920.83$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…ef00backed Yes | 44c | 786.9$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 51c | 453.93$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 5c | 296.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…1fe7backed Yes | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 51c | 60.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 47c | 58.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…17b3backed Yes | 53c | 39.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nice beat Rangers?this page
- Will Rangers beat Nice?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.