Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f668f9266426201aa76382232f0ed3b67f8438a30cdded9d4bf837bf6e0b311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Team Vitality, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Fire Flux Esports | 55c | 315.86$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 250 | 46.4%116 W · 134 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…69b5backed Team Vitality | 45c | 277.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…7cc5backed Fire Flux Esports | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed Team Vitality | 43c | 259.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…2251backed Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…c307backed Team Vitality | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda7…af42backed Fire Flux Esports | 59c | 178.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Vitality | 41c | 141.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Team Vitality | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Team Vitality | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…0f3abacked Fire Flux Esports | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f3…b3eebacked Team Vitality | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…dbcbbacked Fire Flux Esports | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed Fire Flux Esports | 57c | 29.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…238cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Team Vitality vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA PlayoffsFire Flux Esports won
- Valorant: Team Vitality vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerTeam Vitality won
- Valorant: Team Vitality vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.