La Liga · resolved market
Valencia vs. Villarreal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f9f437528c8fe2df9c3f29872e6a2e84068ed8580aed4494ba1a327c961ac18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Under | 47c | 22,032$10,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,676.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 53c | 7,830$4,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 4,034$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.23 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Under | 48c | 3,762$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 52c | 3,654$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 3,127$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.84 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 62c | 264.52$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked Over | 52c | 163.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…a38abacked Under | 59c | 154.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 39c | 81.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 38c | 27.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia vs. Villarreal: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal (-0.5)Villarreal won
- Valencia vs. Villarreal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.