MLB · resolved market
NLDS: Dodgers vs. Padres Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c3b138ef4d34d1b1dc5e17d15f9792c6f22c42e4df700917e14b5e7af0881f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Dodgers, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Dodgers | 48c | 2,164$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…4e6cbacked Padres | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Padres | 44c | 756.82$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.82 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Padres | 44c | 399.97$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.98 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Dodgers | 32c | 275.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…a74cbacked Dodgers | 55c | 270.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Dodgers | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Dodgers | 56c | 180.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Padres | 65c | 165.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…4c1cbacked Dodgers | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Dodgers | 57c | 107.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Padres | 48c | 68.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Padres | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Padres | 69c | 47.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Dodgers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Dodgers | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Padres | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Dodgers | 57c | 32.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Dodgers | 57c | 32.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274d…dc57backed Dodgers | 59c | 26.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Dodgers | 57c | 26.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…a64cbacked Padres | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.