Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Winter Bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610b99ed7a499c868c65dc09cbdeddb3e5dffff176e96306d189931dde51e0a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,704 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Winter Bear | 60c | 495.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…9c9cbacked Rune Eaters | 78c | 337.41$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Rune Eaters | 67c | 263.96$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Winter Bear | 28c | 259.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 229.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 221.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…51debacked Winter Bear | 10c | 221.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Winter Bear | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Rune Eaters | 77c | 184.53$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Rune Eaters | 63c | 161.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 144.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Winter Bear | 27c | 140.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Rune Eaters | 64c | 122.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Winter Bear | 16c | 117.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 101.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Winter Bear | 40c | 87.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Winter Bear | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Winter Bear | 36c | 79.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Rune Eaters | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Winter Bear | 26c | 59.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d13…0bfcbacked Winter Bear | 28c | 53.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Winter Bear | 21c | 51.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rune Eaters | 63c | 48.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Winter Bear | 29c | 47.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 46.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Rune Eaters | 65c | 35.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Rune Eaters | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Winter Bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Winter Bear - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.