Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617f71d08c279400b6137d6febd3ef4cbc3455332ea2f6eeeb06f62182ac9d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Urawa Red Diamondsof Urawa Red Diamonds, FC Mito Holly Hock
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,172 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 29c | 1,302$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.54 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 70c | 1,282$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 42c | 300$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 25c | 236.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.34 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 75c | 157.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 72c | 115$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked FC Mito Holly Hock | 72c | 22.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed FC Mito Holly Hock | 73c | 18.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -6.6wins | -0.55per pick | 64cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)this page
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.