Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - Paragon Turbina Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61deeccd62868e8932cb1f7679efd81ddb73549cc5f334ebf60900c0b5dae646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Spirit Academy | 56c | 1,277$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.19 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 760.2$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.33 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 675.95$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.9 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Yellow Submarine | 36c | 599.98$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 257.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 206.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…3f0abacked Yellow Submarine | 54c | 164.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Spirit Academy | 57c | 153$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 127.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Yellow Submarine | 42c | 103.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 101.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…ca93backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 94.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 90.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…8532backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 81.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 70.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Spirit Academy | 74c | 67.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 235 | 62.1%146 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked Spirit Academy | 64c | 67.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 53.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 51.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 48.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 225 | 58.2%131 W · 94 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Spirit Academy | 63c | 45.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Spirit Academy | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…5facbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 268 | 48.9%131 W · 137 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 28.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…c134backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 19.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…1337backed Yellow Submarine | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - Paragon Turbina Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.