NHL · resolved market
Which conference wins NHL Stanley Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61fd9f2274a8bca5828434e2789c61685dca2d69be851b65f9e5591cbec23779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eastof East, West
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…9337backed East | 49c | 367.94$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.46 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked West | 52c | 255$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed East | 46c | 249.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed West | 54c | 248$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked East | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed East | 47c | 148.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed East | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…e98ebacked East | 56c | 100.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed West | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked West | 44c | 33.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed West | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed West | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…b6f2backed East | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.