Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 45°F or below on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627def28d54b8f2983b482375255070d65df7023e375d05ca408daa895468a62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 438.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 314.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 240.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…e5b5backed Yes | 8c | 168.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 73c | 154.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 145.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 26c | 143.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 100.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 30c | 92.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 23c | 87.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 26c | 81.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked Yes | 19c | 74.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 26c | 74.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 72c | 65.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 75c | 58.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 20c | 56.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 47.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed Yes | 75c | 43.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 61c | 34.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 31.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 38c | 29.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 63c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 23.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 80c | 22.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 68c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 18.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 80c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 45°F or below on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.