Olympics · resolved market
Women's Semifinals - USA vs. Sweden
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6356e972463380a9678124885f765a0cb66bbf75341f74a8991501c11b2612bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, Sweden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Sweden | 3c | 32,188$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Sweden | 2c | 11,636$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.27 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…d77cbacked Sweden | 3c | 7,330$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Sweden | 3c | 6,511$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb82…69adbacked Sweden | 3c | 5,618$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sweden | 1c | 5,157$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Sweden | 1c | 5,093$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e0…281bbacked Sweden | 3c | 3,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sweden | 3c | 2,787$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…f8d4backed Sweden | 3c | 2,420$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…78b1backed Sweden | 2c | 2,268$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…b091backed Sweden | 1c | 2,085$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d99…a421backed Sweden | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Sweden | 3c | 1,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Sweden | 1c | 1,668$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2198…1d3ebacked Sweden | 2c | 1,663$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Sweden | 2c | 1,602$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Sweden | 2c | 1,536$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Sweden | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Sweden | 6c | 1,162$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Sweden | 3c | 1,101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Sweden | 1c | 1,087$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sweden | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Sweden | 3c | 999.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Sweden | 3c | 985.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…3c2abacked Sweden | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…400fbacked Sweden | 2c | 572.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Sweden | 4c | 557.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…b6dbbacked Sweden | 3c | 551$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…a92abacked Sweden | 3c | 545.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…d590backed Sweden | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…5309backed Sweden | 2c | 499.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018f…e8e6backed Sweden | 3c | 491$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…b3bcbacked Sweden | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…8e46backed Sweden | 3c | 433.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Sweden | 5c | 331.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.