Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63f850226f4a3503a10997bbba488ca06c4ce6e8bfa5ccb98845e7649130c877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 55c | 23,388$12,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,863.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 18,938$8,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,415.77 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 32c | 9,606$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,525.44 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 6,489$4,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,286.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 2,098$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.02 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 52c | 1,839$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 54c | 264.84$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 263.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 73c | 177.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 46c | 172.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 41c | 166.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 49c | 126.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 109.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 25c | 87.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 54.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d655backed Under | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452b…1dd9backed Under | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 68c | 14.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.