South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x649bf9afe30a65a4570e87db00476a6c640f0ec5ef7b57ffffd5ea0a7619fc2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 482$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 58c | 336.58$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Over | 41c | 274.34$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Over | 38c | 232.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 204.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 63c | 199.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 26c | 166.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 149.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 14c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 60c | 53.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Over | 43c | 45.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 39c | 39.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 57c | 36.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 37c | 34.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5this page
- CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.