South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62f9cd3c7ed1799ef2736f49bd4f60e2bef8b2fe2ef949e6f19e9128c790ad03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 53c | 1,846$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.24 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 80c | 926.44$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 21c | 803.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Over | 43c | 775.98$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.67 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 38c | 645.72$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.41 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…0ae4backed Over | 25c | 450.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 383.8$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 319.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…c7a6backed Over | 48c | 257.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 74c | 133.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…e5f5backed Over | 39c | 132$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 118.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 65c | 115.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 99.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 27c | 99.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 41c | 82.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 37c | 65.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…2e59backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 69c | 48.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 74c | 44.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…2084backed Over | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 72c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5this page
- CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CS Cristal vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.