NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Jets: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b9a74d41245c2a5ce06ace189d8e3ee39ebb359b9363e2c351c9ef4394941d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,858 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9186…b7a4backed Under | 26c | 407$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…7b99backed Under | 26c | 381$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…ef73backed Under | 26c | 340$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…007abacked Over | 74c | 235$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…b207backed Over | 74c | 233$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…e6f3backed Over | 74c | 208$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…eb07backed Over | 74c | 159$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…79d9backed Over | 74c | 158$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…3379backed Over | 74c | 137$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 76c | 59.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 24c | 59.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Over | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Jets: O/U 4.5this page
- Rangers vs. JetsRangers won
- Rangers vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.