Asian League · resolved market
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64fba4dfbc6860a4c03ca8e38349a91faa8d820b27221749c3b87fc29d4918ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 32c | 40,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,600 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed Yes | 63c | 17,655$11,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,532.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 74c | 16,691$12,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340.31 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 72c | 2,989$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.48 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 79c | 1,347$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 64c | 650$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 64c | 614.06$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 66c | 318.82$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…9649backed Yes | 68c | 280$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 32c | 253.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.1 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 65c | 207.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…12cebacked Yes | 61c | 142.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 36c | 99.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 31c | 95.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 69c | 72.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 44c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…399dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…8923backed No | 70c | 17.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.