Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654212580676edbb4400a64c386c37b7dbb5ed9a097c8520e96f11012120a452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Insomniaof Riddle, Insomnia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,743 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Insomnia | 17c | 1,750$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.13 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Insomnia | 10c | 1,423$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.5 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed Insomnia | 10c | 1,159$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8375…ba1dbacked Riddle | 60c | 833.04$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Insomnia | 11c | 742$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.17 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Insomnia | 40c | 560$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…ba33backed Insomnia | 16c | 425$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Insomnia | 15c | 316.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Riddle | 73c | 263.58$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.33 | 220 | 18.2%40 W · 180 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c930backed Insomnia | 37c | 231.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.07 | 212 | 57.1%121 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Insomnia | 36c | 229.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Insomnia | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Insomnia | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Insomnia | 16c | 195.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…9a68backed Riddle | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5616backed Insomnia | 60c | 146.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Insomnia | 16c | 133.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Insomnia | 33c | 130.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Insomnia | 18c | 103.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Riddle | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…a123backed Insomnia | 15c | 97.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Riddle | 80c | 96.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Insomnia | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…3015backed Insomnia | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Insomnia | 24c | 75.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Insomnia | 26c | 73.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 109 | 59.6%65 W · 44 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Insomnia | 19c | 69.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…a890backed Insomnia | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…bfe0backed Insomnia | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…227bbacked Insomnia | 43c | 47.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Riddle | 72c | 43.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Riddle | 51c | 42.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Insomnia | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Insomnia | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…7f9bbacked Insomnia | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…2ca1backed Riddle | 67c | 29.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Riddle | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…07f9backed Riddle | 79c | 16.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1this page
- Map Handicap: RDL (-1.5) vs Insomnia (+1.5)Insomnia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.