Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655964a5a150d994c6505791d2cf815791b4f6154cb5f93b05cc858988543c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 41c | 1,682$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.73 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 60c | 1,500$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.74 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -7.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 59c | 605$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.45 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 75c | 259$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 46c | 211$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 60c | 102.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -6.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 63c | 84.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 49c | 63.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 849 | 46.1%391 W · 458 L | +51.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 51 | 84.3%43 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…934bbacked No | 54c | 32.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…fe57backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1929…346bbacked Yes | 59c | 24.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…d2dabacked Yes | 49c | 20.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed Yes | 75c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.