Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655a1486e4dffd1ba591deb114c8c1aa9d77b8ee65338d77bf5bd5f5c17673fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,260 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea0c…9ae8backed Yes | 1c | 1,308$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 254.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 26c | 217.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 18c | 202.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 174.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 170.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…c2f6backed Yes | 12c | 119.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 118.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 108.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 102.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 101.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 99.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 99.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed No | 65c | 85.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 33c | 73.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 72.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 39c | 70.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 45c | 67.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 31c | 62.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 69c | 61.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 57.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 53.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 41c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 46.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 40.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 37.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 36.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 34.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…5044backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…17aebacked Yes | 36c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 28.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 67c | 27.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…0fcebacked Yes | 45c | 27.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…f080backed Yes | 42c | 25.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 53c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfd…5e81backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 65cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.