Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66dd4b9b9ae33617a8b0e3f875e20aba657c22e6e08e41cdf54c665b23dc6475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,413 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 33c | 389.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 324.21$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 268.19$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 16c | 257.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 55c | 233.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 48c | 230.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…7093backed Yes | 50c | 201.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 179.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked No | 59c | 168.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 66c | 166.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 153.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 130.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 109.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 100.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 100.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 99.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 95.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 88.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 76.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…4165backed Yes | 74c | 66.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 56c | 57.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 53c | 56.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 44c | 45.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 43.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 57c | 43.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 38c | 40.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 49c | 40.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…c2f6backed Yes | 48c | 40.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 37.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…3549backed Yes | 63c | 31.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 43c | 30.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…17aebacked Yes | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 23.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 76c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 47c | 21.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 20.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 62c | 19.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 18.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.