Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b26b12074af1be8c96af1dacd3ff3b5c760aec09b2e96affed8c6ea8bbf42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 14c | 2,673$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.89 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 11c | 1,430$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 15c | 594.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 19c | 592.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 7c | 267.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 18c | 160.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…a632backed Yes | 9c | 136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?Yes won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US add more than 250k jobs in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.