Premier League · resolved market
Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66184a7a24bc5cfbcbe41cd7c0c3e14cff03396680674ac631e52ecb9d113520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Over | 48c | 713.85$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.64 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +45%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 26c | 675.68$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 160.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.97 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 42c | 113$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 73c | 76.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…bc6fbacked Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Under | 49c | 47.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Over | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 74c | 19.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.