Premier League · resolved market
Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a9bededcb6116c0c48b66c20e19082598b0d2f36fed5e55f77ee4ae49fa1097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 49c | 511$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 49c | 447.4$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.7 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 51c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 248.44$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 231.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 60c | 166.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Over | 49c | 128.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Over | 48c | 109$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Over | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Under | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 31.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.