Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x664e7db0a2aef24825afbf5b50af2d7e32a78ee5e60c1eee24a98e0b535319e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 287$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 260.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 25c | 215.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 158.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 150.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 72c | 137.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 26c | 129.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 125.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 117.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 111.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…5606backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3b…52afbacked Yes | 26c | 59.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 56.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 24c | 48.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 27c | 46.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 74c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…9184backed No | 79c | 29.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 76c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 77c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.