Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fb927bd9cafe11dd2b5019733fedc79f534772131b90e26e31c036fbab384c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 50c | 2,942$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.63 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 2,406$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 75c | 635.86$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 75c | 358.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 341.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 65c | 242.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 235.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 43c | 234$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 11c | 185.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 30c | 182.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 18c | 172.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 161.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 159.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 147.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 66c | 133.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 37c | 128.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 122.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 112.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 108.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 28c | 101.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 12c | 99.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 14c | 98.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 76c | 97.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 96.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 41c | 95.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 45c | 84.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 58c | 81.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 79.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 38c | 77.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 75.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 73.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 36c | 72.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 31c | 66.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 65.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 62.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 46c | 59.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 57c | 52.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 51.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 25c | 47.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 40c | 44.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 67c | 41.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 38.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 55c | 38.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 77c | 35.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 31c | 35.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 33c | 35.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 33.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes | 34c | 30.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 52c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed Yes | 66c | 26.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 25.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 79c | 24.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…2361backed Yes | 63c | 24.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…9958backed No | 51c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 74c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.