College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66682c9bc32dd93b5c5be21ea188042454c268d60ea6671a3497f7cc6d189f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof Iowa State, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $490,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Iowa State | 49c | 166,669$81,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,398.7 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed Iowa | 51c | 151,645$77,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,209.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Iowa | 52c | 20,160$10,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,709.45 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Iowa State | 48c | 10,931$5,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,296.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Iowa | 52c | 4,457$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.36 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Iowa State | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Iowa | 51c | 1,865$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.69 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Iowa State | 48c | 1,707$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.22 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Iowa | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.81 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Iowa | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Iowa State | 50c | 1,100$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.26 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…fbb5backed Iowa | 53c | 564.87$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.49 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Iowa | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Iowa | 52c | 203$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…9ababacked Iowa State | 50c | 150.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Iowa | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Iowa | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Iowa | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Iowa State | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Iowa | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State (-3.5)this page
- Iowa vs. Iowa StateIowa State won
- Iowa vs. Iowa State: O/U 41.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.