MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6719851dca2d24834ef8c92f7ac5ad59bf53f4b69d1040769e35f1f0c2ba3b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,067 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea3c…4787backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…98a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 1,998$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,542$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 1,247$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 877.03$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 818$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Kansas City Royals | 20c | 539.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 534.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2860…b066backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 432.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 423$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 361.42$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 288.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 252.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 212$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…2dcabacked Kansas City Royals | 30c | 201.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 197.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…0d5abacked Kansas City Royals | 24c | 192.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 185.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Kansas City Royals | 10c | 149.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 132.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 122.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 105.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…f67dbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 100.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…70c5backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 57.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 41.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 41.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 32.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.