Tennis · resolved market
Split: Adrian Oetzbach vs Filippo Romano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x674e3fad06f07da85abfe5732c796067e45bb6c69064f93715574fb986fd41dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filippo Romanoof Adrian Oetzbach, Filippo Romano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,294 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Adrian Oetzbach | 9c | 58,963$5,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,556.41 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Adrian Oetzbach | 10c | 6,862$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.42 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…19acbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 8c | 6,266$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Adrian Oetzbach | 11c | 4,376$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.29 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Adrian Oetzbach | 12c | 2,183$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.05 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Adrian Oetzbach | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Adrian Oetzbach | 9c | 1,266$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e68dbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 14c | 1,133$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Adrian Oetzbach | 10c | 1,106$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Adrian Oetzbach | 13c | 614.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Adrian Oetzbach | 7c | 583.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 10c | 387.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Adrian Oetzbach | 22c | 305$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Adrian Oetzbach | 7c | 282.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Adrian Oetzbach | 19c | 267.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Adrian Oetzbach | 13c | 238.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Adrian Oetzbach | 10c | 228.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…c629backed Adrian Oetzbach | 19c | 194.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 9c | 162.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Adrian Oetzbach | 12c | 147.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Adrian Oetzbach | 13c | 114.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Filippo Romano | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Filippo Romano | 79c | 82.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Adrian Oetzbach | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Adrian Oetzbach | 18c | 67.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Adrian Oetzbach | 21c | 58.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…8cd3backed Adrian Oetzbach | 20c | 56.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Filippo Romano | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…9a06backed Filippo Romano | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Filippo Romano | 78c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…accbbacked Filippo Romano | 78c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…159cbacked Filippo Romano | 79c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…4f17backed Filippo Romano | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.