NFL · resolved market
Will the Lions beat the Vikings by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c064c9851e965ca00e4abb21b8bcaa6d306dd7b24babf38ebce7386a590cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Lions | 53c | 3,140$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.14 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Vikings | 45c | 3,010$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.5 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Vikings | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…2e7dbacked Vikings | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e85…d6eebacked Lions | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…1832backed Vikings | 47c | 371$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…e75fbacked Lions | 53c | 371$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…1aadbacked Vikings | 49c | 360$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8418…881abacked Vikings | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…b63ebacked Lions | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…15b0backed Lions | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…eef6backed Lions | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…d9febacked Vikings | 51c | 360$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f2…fb6bbacked Vikings | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…cb60backed Lions | 49c | 360$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…58e6backed Lions | 51c | 360$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…b2d5backed Vikings | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…429fbacked Vikings | 50c | 355$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…919abacked Lions | 50c | 355$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…ea89backed Lions | 50c | 345$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…5778backed Lions | 50c | 345$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6c…5cf1backed Vikings | 50c | 345$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…447dbacked Vikings | 50c | 345$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…d2d8backed Lions | 51c | 330$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…8ed9backed Vikings | 49c | 330$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…af1ebacked Lions | 49c | 290$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…6501backed Vikings | 43c | 290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…4fc6backed Vikings | 51c | 290$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2a…1861backed Lions | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e2…fcecbacked Lions | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…4f91backed Vikings | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…01ebbacked Vikings | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…5873backed Vikings | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…2b59backed Lions | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…4e7abacked Lions | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3062backed Lions | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…5c04backed Vikings | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…0d66backed Vikings | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…2b4bbacked Lions | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09a…7306backed Lions | 52c | 182$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d23…b805backed Vikings | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…f358backed Vikings | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e76…7fa1backed Lions | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98e…b50fbacked Vikings | 51c | 180$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…0208backed Vikings | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…880ebacked Vikings | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…cf8dbacked Lions | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…caacbacked Lions | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…ab59backed Lions | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f3…1babbacked Lions | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…2146backed Lions | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255d…9674backed Vikings | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…19d3backed Vikings | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…65bfbacked Vikings | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…c345backed Lions | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…bfebbacked Vikings | 50c | 175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42e…347bbacked Vikings | 50c | 175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…69bdbacked Lions | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…21d8backed Lions | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…61d4backed Lions | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…ef41backed Vikings | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…a29bbacked Vikings | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb622…d993backed Lions | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…eec9backed Lions | 50c | 165$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…5c99backed Vikings | 50c | 165$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…e778backed Lions | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…f416backed Vikings | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…60c6backed Lions | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af4…c389backed Vikings | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Vikings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Vikings | 50c | 75.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Lions | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Lions beat the Vikings by 3 or more points?this page
- Will the Lions and Vikings combine for 57 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.