Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d9fa2433761e3a7d0462bfd3a841b19f1c87e90834ec30913f91eb11b27c66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Darderi, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zhang | 47c | 1,097$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Darderi | 50c | 961.86$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.13 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Darderi | 50c | 486.66$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.47 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Darderi | 49c | 398.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Zhang | 51c | 366.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.33 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Zhang | 50c | 324.54$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Darderi | 33c | 292.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Zhang | 59c | 256.94$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed Zhang | 55c | 127.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Darderi | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Zhang | 55c | 117.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Zhang | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Darderi | 48c | 97.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Darderi | 46c | 60.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…de42backed Darderi | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Zhang | 51c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 203 | 31%63 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Zhang | 55c | 34.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Darderi | 43c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Zhang | 57c | 30.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Zhang | 52c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Darderi | 51c | 19.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)this page
- BMW Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Luciano DarderiLuciano Darderi won
- Set 1 Winner: Zhang vs DarderiDarderi won
- Zhang vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Zhang vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Zhang vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Zhizhen Zhang vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.