South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x684d08763fbd12a56fd9b8562c1577ed668cd8efd4794e5dd8daf71af88776ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,668$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,557$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.88 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 1,320$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 24c | 1,174$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 31c | 644.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…d93bbacked No | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 76c | 325.7$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…538abacked Yes | 29c | 311$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 69c | 234$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 29c | 197.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 78c | 117.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 74c | 88.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 65.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 70c | 54.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 78c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 78c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 69c | 36.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 78c | 30.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 77c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed No | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed No | 79c | 22.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 69c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked No | 78c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 78c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-07-29?No won
- Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-07-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.