South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-07-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe755ab891965d65424ff64c33491a6486052f2e44524dce19facdd01f786ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ad7…42aabacked Yes | 30c | 6,379$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.38 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 2,103$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.84 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 15c | 2,018$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.53 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed No | 70c | 1,358$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.4 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed No | 71c | 614.6$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.23 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…32a5backed Yes | 5c | 331.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 10c | 302.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 69c | 280.16$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 210.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 66c | 210$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Yes | 30c | 168.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 70c | 157$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 29c | 142.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Yes | 31c | 115.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…4bf2backed Yes | 16c | 113.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 74c | 89.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 69c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…299abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 52.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 73c | 29.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-07-29?this page
- Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?No won
- Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-07-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.