NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685a0329659d73d640c22b805326e46af7d081c00f4058071e48459704e1dab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,516$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.94 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,948$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.59 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 3c | 1,780$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 51c | 1,385$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.5 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 1,385$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.5 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 48c | 777$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.04 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 50c | 629.74$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.87 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 460$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.45 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Under | 48c | 238.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 91.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Under | 58c | 54.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…5223backed Over | 52c | 32.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…0c57backed Under | 50c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…eee4backed Under | 50c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…a524backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd191…e9abbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. PanthersFlyers won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.