MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685cb640aed765d1113a33b55f77c93ba91153ca0a9f60a3e6640b6a674ac372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,873 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Miami Marlins | 0c | 10,521$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8f7bbacked Miami Marlins | 1c | 5,516$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 53c | 1,746$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.71 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 1,090$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.5 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 905.19$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.72 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed New York Mets | 53c | 681.23$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 594$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.57 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed New York Mets | 55c | 586.83$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.07 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 296$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 271.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked New York Mets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Mets | 54c | 185.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed New York Mets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed New York Mets | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked New York Mets | 64c | 117.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked New York Mets | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 89.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked New York Mets | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked New York Mets | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed New York Mets | 57c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed New York Mets | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 15c | 66.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed New York Mets | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 50.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed New York Mets | 57c | 34.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed New York Mets | 43c | 33.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed New York Mets | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 31.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed New York Mets | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed New York Mets | 52c | 23.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 20.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.