College Football · resolved market
Spread: Utah (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691ee31632d20db86a538139572ca36613d6be930a413d6cdfdfcb5af7f02c0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof Utah, BYU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed BYU | 48c | 15,402$7,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,009 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Utah | 52c | 12,167$6,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,326.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Utah | 53c | 7,651$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.44 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Utah | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked BYU | 47c | 3,023$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.07 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed BYU | 46c | 2,054$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.41 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Utah | 51c | 1,896$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.15 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed BYU | 48c | 1,872$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.12 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Utah | 52c | 1,209$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.68 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Utah | 53c | 1,006$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.77 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed BYU | 49c | 918.37$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Utah | 52c | 775$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Utah | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed BYU | 52c | 408$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Utah | 55c | 363.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Utah | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Utah | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed BYU | 51c | 180.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked BYU | 49c | 114$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed BYU | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Utah | 55c | 77.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Utah | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Utah | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed BYU | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Utah | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed BYU | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked BYU | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Utah | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Utah | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Utah | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21a0…1c90backed Utah | 55c | 34.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Utah | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed BYU | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Utah | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Utah | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah (-3.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Utah (-4.5)BYU won
- Utah vs. BYUBYU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.