Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6920458f73f4357cf73148b2cb7f0e4a060d9d4fd97c1f49f8d0c07b6e6b0f91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 7c | 34,532$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.22 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 72c | 6,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 4,318$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 2,550$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 72c | 836.37$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.18 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 28c | 382.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 77c | 309.35$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 257.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 28c | 141.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 71c | 124.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 27c | 100.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554c…7156backed Yes | 30c | 83.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…10c5backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b9…8c61backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.