MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69b50b6cf1316b27f1aaa306b3ed41cec17c3d486b21d48bc5e22be153c21e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 2,263$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.99 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 1,343$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.28 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 674.85$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…68febacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 281$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 172.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Brewers vs. PadresPadres won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.