Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Satima Toregen vs Kira Bataikina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1bc47d09c3f4c7fffd4d3acbd90e72a12bb9c764be712f46b3e7eefc1c2480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kira Bataikinaof Satima Toregen, Kira Bataikina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Satima Toregen | 70c | 8,937$6,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,266.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kira Bataikina | 34c | 6,727$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,460.21 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kira Bataikina | 28c | 3,381$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.06 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Satima Toregen | 50c | 1,794$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.9 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…11a9backed Satima Toregen | 55c | 733.17$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Kira Bataikina | 72c | 553.86$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 221 | 52%115 W · 106 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Kira Bataikina | 41c | 480$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.02 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Kira Bataikina | 34c | 194.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe197…71ebbacked Satima Toregen | 73c | 180$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Kira Bataikina | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kira Bataikina | 39c | 143.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Satima Toregen | 50c | 117.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Kira Bataikina | 30c | 111.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Satima Toregen | 44c | 108.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Kira Bataikina | 53c | 103.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Kira Bataikina | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Satima Toregen | 32c | 101.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…dca8backed Satima Toregen | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Kira Bataikina | 31c | 86.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Satima Toregen | 29c | 59.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Satima Toregen | 78c | 50.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Kira Bataikina | 40c | 35.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Kira Bataikina | 66c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Kira Bataikina | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Kira Bataikina | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…47f5backed Satima Toregen | 74c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.