Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $80 April 27-May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a501d3cfd317ba3eee7c836248fd0c4fa407f601fd7dd81e24267926992c764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 78c | 9,925$7,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.52 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…9a96backed Yes | 7c | 9,867$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 35c | 1,869$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 60c | 886.98$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.84 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 8c | 815.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…86a9backed Yes | 9c | 700$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 20c | 588.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 38c | 482.56$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.37 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 58c | 249.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…2e62backed Yes | 45c | 204.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 19c | 122.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 25c | 65.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…fbafbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…c5fbbacked No | 62c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…3618backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $80 April 27-May 3?this page
- Will Solana dip to $60 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 April 27-May 3?No won
- Will Solana reach $100 April 27-May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.