Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6acd59b91b3e2595643745df75c0c7e6f0ebe19ea952d2fc7bbe0c42cc2b9cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida State Seminolesof Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,397 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 9,132$4,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,175.33 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 6,523$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.58 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 6,080$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,787.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 4,630$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.69 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 2,585$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.83 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 2,433$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.73 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 2,222$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.34 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils | 18c | 708.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 374.07$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.81 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Florida State Seminoles | 52c | 341.35$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 205.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 187.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 183.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 183.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 104.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 97.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 96.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…18e6backed Florida State Seminoles | 55c | 87.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Florida State Seminoles | 50c | 87.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…648fbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 50.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 48.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 40.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 50c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)this page
- Florida State Seminoles vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Florida State Seminoles vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-16.5)Florida State Seminoles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.