Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b143cc1804eedfc13112e3ab4dfbd777af6c8e000349f4f7113b75e2f38fa1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 2,594$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 1,490$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 78c | 1,324$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.73 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 30c | 525$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 10c | 515.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked No | 38c | 467.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.59 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 464$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 19c | 374.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 20c | 279.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 24c | 237.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 29c | 223$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.09 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 30c | 189$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 176.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 25c | 175.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 158.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 25c | 114.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 105.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 51c | 97.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 27c | 47.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…a7debacked Yes | 42c | 33.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 75c | 31.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed No | 75c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-25?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.