Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b21773b15acd3154bf9fa978e12f69dd793c8ca4ee28f445421fd209c6aa9ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 68c | 8,525$5,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.12 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 6,592$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 33c | 2,869$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,800$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 5c | 1,276$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 67c | 1,100$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 33c | 1,100$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.99 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 67c | 959.99$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.5 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 808.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 32c | 630.64$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.11 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 10c | 510.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 68c | 352.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…dea7backed Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 16c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked Yes | 32c | 122.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 101.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 70c | 96.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 91.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…3842backed Yes | 14c | 80.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 67c | 53.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 67c | 49.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 32c | 45.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…5165backed No | 67c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.