CS2 · resolved market
CS: Natus Vincere vs NIP/B8 winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b3376fecbd120c95e5a6af2b2a3d09ee38015194011a8c52205e0080777ab4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, NIP/B8 winner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbceb…bd96backed NIP/B8 winner | 32c | 1,552$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked NIP/B8 winner | 26c | 1,527$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.98 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 1,037$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.13 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…5fdcbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 676$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 550$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…a304backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 472$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…b074backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 406$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…18f4backed NIP/B8 winner | 23c | 342.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed NIP/B8 winner | 30c | 179$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 68.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.