Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b49e129fe3f08be5c5855dfba264ad7b64311432e1f0536716cbc9a67722b8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Norrie, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Norrie | 58c | 1,631$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.38 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Shapovalov | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Norrie | 56c | 876.99$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.12 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Norrie | 58c | 633.86$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.64 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shapovalov | 42c | 633.86$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.64 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Shapovalov | 41c | 631.15$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.38 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Norrie | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shapovalov | 65c | 401.11$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shapovalov | 72c | 387.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Shapovalov | 40c | 248.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +10.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Norrie | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Shapovalov | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Norrie | 32c | 121.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Shapovalov | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Norrie | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Norrie | 31c | 93.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Norrie | 19c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…fdd7backed Shapovalov | 44c | 50.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Shapovalov | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Norrie | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…fd00backed Norrie | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 203 | 47.3%96 W · 107 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Shapovalov | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shapovalov | 74c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Shapovalovthis page
- Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Denis ShapovalovDenis Shapovalov won
- Norrie vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Norrie vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Norrie vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Norrie vs ShapovalovNorrie won
- Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)Shapovalov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.