CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - Copenhagen Gaming Week Showdown Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6af04a62fac73097b28d347c798003a0b0d2672d096590dd163b6c78c4b63d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof KOLESIE, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed illwill | 60c | 920.87$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.35 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed illwill | 55c | 777$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed KOLESIE | 45c | 775.47$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.14 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed KOLESIE | 40c | 444.44$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked KOLESIE | 40c | 265$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed KOLESIE | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked KOLESIE | 44c | 229.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed KOLESIE | 29c | 134.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed KOLESIE | 49c | 123.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -9.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed illwill | 56c | 90.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 121 | 58.7%71 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed KOLESIE | 40c | 69.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked KOLESIE | 26c | 57.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed KOLESIE | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed illwill | 64c | 32.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked illwill | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked illwill | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed illwill | 73c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed illwill | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.