Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd8472931e632f8c00d7787a41be029568180a26819cbbe875b57b9cc94af45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 40c | 1,736$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.72 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 57c | 1,336$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.32 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 60c | 1,333$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.07 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 43c | 1,209$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…42fabacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 426.47$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 59c | 380$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 153$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.