Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Toledo Rockets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf12f24527a7f8db1b626b8d9a7bb1d657d31926c8810c635c6a6646b2edfa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bowling Green Falconsof Toledo Rockets, Bowling Green Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,437 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toledo Rockets | 25c | 579.33$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bowling Green Falcons | 50c | 567.01$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.77 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…1088backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Toledo Rockets | 51c | 271.44$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bowling Green Falcons | 51c | 267.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bowling Green Falcons | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bowling Green Falcons | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bowling Green Falcons | 49c | 123.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Bowling Green Falcons | 52c | 114.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo Rockets | 48c | 114.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 112.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 99.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Bowling Green Falcons | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Bowling Green Falcons | 59c | 46.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Toledo Rockets | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Toledo Rockets | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ee6abacked Toledo Rockets | 66c | 39.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-1.5)this page
- Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo RocketsToledo Rockets won
- Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 150.5Over won
- Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 151.5Over won
- Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 152.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.