Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c38e0563982fb21de753e8d331be1f2a11c32494801b893465a7e5d54bd9ddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- the bugof the bug, GG Boom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked GG Boom | 36c | 1,697$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.39 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked GG Boom | 10c | 664.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed the bug | 64c | 639.35$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.46 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed the bug | 65c | 514$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed the bug | 65c | 269.53$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed GG Boom | 20c | 258.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed GG Boom | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked GG Boom | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked GG Boom | 9c | 142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed the bug | 63c | 60.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked the bug | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed GG Boom | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthe bug won
- Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom - Game 2 Winnerthe bug won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.